The South African Police Services have released the crime stats for the last financial year. I still need to wrap my head around the numbers, as many of the categories don't seem discreet, or intuitive. However, I think the executive summary contains some good insight into the 'threat landscape'. It also backs up several of my 'gut feel' assertions about crime in SA. However, as Russell points, there may be an independence issue, as the report is "written by the guys whose job is on the line", and I haven't found any information on how the stats were independently verified. I've culled some sections from the executive summary and given them my own headings, formatting and order. Whatever your take on crime in SA, these stats are a good read, and certainly more likely to be accurate, even with bias, than the eight year old drivel on Wikipedia.
Most crime in 'Megatownships' by drunks
Detailed docket, geographical and timeline analyses of the contact crimes confirm that at least two thirds of all contact crime [e.g. mugging, rape, murder] cases are strongly linked to specific social behaviour patterns which inter alia involve alcohol and other substance abuse and are mainly associated with informal settlements in megatownships.
Almost two thirds (66,0%) of all aggravated robberies are street/public robberies. These occur mainly in CBD areas and the black megatownships (e.g. Khayelitsha, KwaMashu, Umlazi and Nyanga) where ordinary people are robbed of their money, cellular telephones or other valuables at gun or knifepoint. The large majority of these incidents are therefore not high profile cases involving well-known people and are rarely reported in the media.
[I emigrated because all the poor people were getting mugged sounds less justified.]
If you're rich, don't live here
The carjackings and house robberies most frequently occur in the more affluent suburbs of Gauteng such as:
- Sandton
- Honeydew
- Douglasdale
- Brooklyn
- Garsfontein
Anatomy of affluent crime
Extreme violence resulting in severe injuries or fatalities is only employed in a very small proportion of these carjacking and house robbery cases. However, extreme violence does occasionally occur because the crimes are usually committed at places where it is less likely for bystanders or eyewitnesses to intervene; firearms are more likely to be involved; the robbers want specific items (frequently the key to a safe or a car); and the perpetrators may be disposed to use threats or violence to obtain their aim. The victims may also react in ways that could trigger violence.
The rest of the world
South Africa compares quite favourably with the rest of the INTERPOL member countries with regard to the incidence of property-related and all the other remaining categories of serious crime. Most of the contact-related, property-related and other serious crimes indeed experienced decreases.
[It would be nice to know how we compare against INTERPOL member countries for non-property related and other serious crime.]
Stats are better than “the media”
Because the crimes frequently occur in more well-to-do areas, the chances of somebody well-known being targeted and even killed are much higher. Such incidents feature on the front pages and in the headlines of the media and reverberate around the world. Such focused and selective reporting on less than 5,0% of South Africa's contact crime, read together with the contact crime statistics, consequently creates an international image of South Africa as an extremely violent society.
Remember, correlation does not equate cause
Increases in the number of crimes heavily dependent on police action for detection are actually considered desirable. The 25,4% increase in the ratio of driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs is probably a result of much more stringent law enforcement by both Metro Police services and the SAPS during 2007/2008.